This invention relates to a method and equipment for predicting when a volcanic eruption or earthquake will occur.
Since the occurrence of a volcanic eruption or earthquake can cause a great deal of damage to people and property in the danger zone, as for example in the Unzen-Fukendake or the Kanto earthquakes, it is highly desirous to be able to accurately predict such an occurrence to minimize the amount of damage that might ensue. Currently, in order to predict the volcanic eruption through the investigation of volcanic activity, an incline level meter is placed on the volcano skin surface to predict the volcanic eruption by measuring changes in an inclination of the mountain's skin surface caused by a magma's activity. Alternately, a seismometer is placed near the volcano to predict the volcanic eruption by monitoring an occurrence of an earthquake activated by the magna's activity. Moreover, seismometers are placed at a plurality of locations and an incline level meter is also placed at certain sites on the earth s surface in an effort to predict the occurrence of an earthquake gathering different data including seismic intensity obtained, changes in the degree of an inclination of the mountain's skin surface, and the beginning of cracks at the earth's surface layer.
According to the aforementioned techniques, it is quite difficult to predict the onset of a volcanic eruption accurately because of the ever-fluctuating inclination of the earth's surface caused by the magma's activity and the difficulties associated with locating the incline level meters. Furthermore, when a seismometer is utilized in predicting volcanic eruptions by monitoring changes in seismic intensity without being able to compare it with prior data the accuracy of the prediction is greatly reduced. In many cases, old data will not be available.
Similarly, in the prediction of an earthquake the accuracy of the prediction, even when using a plurality of seismometers at carefully selected sites in conjunction with an incline level meter, is oftentimes difficult and the accuracy of such predictions is generally very poor.
It is believed that the source of neutrons on the earth's surface is produced by nuclear fusion on the sun, although the count of the neutrons in the background which is normally detected on the earth's surface varies, depending on specific locations and/or environmental factors. However, if a majority of the detected neutrons originated on the sun, the maximum level of detected neutrons should be found at locations that are in direct sunlight during daylight hours and a minimum level of neutrons will be found where there is darkness during nighttime hours. However, preliminary studies indicated that (i) there is almost no difference in neutron counts between daytime hours and nighttime hours, and (ii) it is difficult to distinguish between the integrated counts of neutrons over a long period of time during the daytime hours and nighttime hours, respectively.